A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
